Polymarket Live Prediction Markets (March 2026)
34 active prediction markets from Polymarket covering sports, geopolitics, crypto, and entertainment with prices and trading volume.
| # | question | yes_probability_pct | volume_usd | liquidity_usd | end_date | category | + |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 0.8 | 9964958 | 345249 | 2026-07-01 | ||
| 2 | Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.2 | 9705716 | 2057519 | 2026-07-20 | ||
| 3 | Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.4 | 9698419 | 1216993 | 2026-07-20 | ||
| 4 | Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.4 | 9627035 | 532032 | 2026-07-20 | ||
| 5 | Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 0.7 | 9555238 | 691453 | 2026-07-01 | ||
| 6 | Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | 12.5 | 9510950 | 916113 | 2026-05-27 | ||
| 7 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | 0.4 | 9481542 | 458686 | 2026-03-31 | ||
| 8 | Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1 | 9418451 | 1570362 | 2026-07-20 | ||
| 9 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | 58.5 | 999816 | 53198 | 2026-05-15 | ||
| 10 | Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | 0.7 | 997829 | 655971 | 2028-11-07 | ||
| 11 | Blackhawks vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5 | 100.0 | 994068 | 179817 | 2026-03-24 | ||
| 12 | Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | 0.5 | 994014 | 49489 | 2026-03-31 | ||
| 13 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | 4.8 | 993176 | 107064 | 2027-01-01 | ||
| 14 | USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? | 29.1 | 993085 | 13317 | 2027-01-01 | ||
| 15 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | 0.2 | 989026 | 155691 | 2026-03-31 | ||
| 16 | Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? | 0.5 | 988818 | 176718 | 2026-05-16 | ||
| 17 | Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? | 0.4 | 972512 | 283730 | 2026-05-16 | ||
| 18 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | 3.7 | 969085 | 83970 | 2026-06-30 | ||
| 19 | Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? | 0.2 | 968269 | 237097 | 2026-04-01 | ||
| 20 | Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? | 0.4 | 967575 | 190745 | 2026-05-16 | ||
| 21 | Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? | 7.0 | 964302 | 90015 | 2026-10-31 | ||
| 22 | Fact Check: Maduro capture staged? | 0.4 | 960506 | 36760 | 2026-03-31 | ||
| 23 | Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st? | 0.1 | 959537 | 346647 | 2026-03-31 | ||
| 24 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | 29.5 | 959132 | 95269 | 2026-04-30 | ||
| 25 | Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | 0.9 | 958280 | 195190 | 2026-05-16 | ||
| 26 | Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | 0.1 | 956682 | 120892 | 2026-06-30 | ||
| 27 | Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31? | 0.3 | 950503 | 14137 | 2026-04-01 | ||
| 28 | Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? | 0.2 | 947831 | 48549 | 2027-01-01 | ||
| 29 | Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | 5.1 | 947254 | 111290 | 2026-05-16 | ||
| 30 | Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? | 54.4 | 945525 | 25607 | 2026-03-31 | ||
| 31 | Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.2 | 945277 | 68888 | 2027-04-30 | ||
| 32 | Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? | 0.2 | 944010 | 65718 | 2026-04-01 | ||
| 33 | Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 5.1 | 943645 | 13235 | 2026-10-04 | ||
| 34 | Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? | 0.1 | 938451 | 69559 | 2027-04-30 |
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Polymarket Live Prediction Markets (March 2026) — AI Analysis
Market Snapshot
- $102M total trading volume across 34 active markets, with a stark 10:1 volume gap between top-tier sports bets ($9.5-10M each) and everything else (~$950K each)
- Sports and geopolitics each claim 10 markets (29%), followed by crypto/finance (8 markets) and Eurovision (5 markets)
- The Iran-Israel conflict resolution market (58.5%) and DHS shutdown market (54.4%) are the only questions where bettors see a coin-flip outcome
- FIFA World Cup markets command the deepest liquidity — Qatar alone has $2.1M in the order book, 40x more than many crypto markets
Visualizations
Top Markets by Liquidity Depth
Distribution of Market Probabilities
Markets by Topic Category
Top 10 Markets by Trading Volume
The Long-Shot Economy
xAI having the best AI model by end of March trades at just 0.5% with only $49K liquidity — the thinnest book in the dataset. By contrast, Qatar winning the World Cup at 0.2% has $2.1M in liquidity, showing sports bettors will park serious capital even on near-impossible outcomes.