Coral Reef Bleaching Projections Under Climate Change (1990–2095)

Projected percentage of coral reefs facing severe thermal bleaching across three bias-correction models, with confidence intervals, from 1990 to 2095.
# year
DHM_bcor(2)LI
DHM_bcor(2)
DHM_bcor(2)HI
DHM_bcor_Cfa(2.5)LI
DHM_bcor_Cfa(2.5)
DHM_bcor_Cfa(2.5)HI
DHM_bcor_rsds_bcor(2.5)LI
DHM_bcor_rsds_bcor(2.5)
DHM_bcor_rsds_bcor(2.5)HI
DHM_bcorLI
DHM_bcor
DHM_bcorHI
DHM_bcor_Cfa_bcorLI
DHM_bcor_Cfa_bcor
DHM_bcor_Cfa_bcorHI
DHM_bcor_rsds_bcorLI
DHM_bcor_rsds_bcor
DHM_bcor_rsds_bcorHI
1 1990 5 8 8 0 0 1 0 1 1 0.302297461 0.48 0.483675937 0 0 0.060459492 0 0.06 0.060459492
2 1991 7 10 10 0 1 2 0 1 2 0.423216445 0.6 0.604594921 0 0.06 0.120918984 0 0.06 0.120918984
3 1992 7 10 10 0 1 2 0 1 2 0.423216445 0.6 0.604594921 0 0.06 0.120918984 0 0.06 0.120918984
4 1993 7 10 10 0 1 2 0 1 2 0.423216445 0.6 0.604594921 0 0.06 0.120918984 0 0.06 0.120918984
5 1994 26 27 27 23 24 24 20 21 23 1.571946796 1.63 1.632406288 1.390568319 1.45 1.451027811 1.209189843 1.27 1.390568319
6 1995 25 26 27 17 20 23 16 17 19 1.511487304 1.57 1.632406288 1.027811366 1.21 1.390568319 0.967351874 1.03 1.148730351
7 1996 26 28 32 17 20 23 16 17 19 1.571946796 1.69 1.934703748 1.027811366 1.21 1.390568319 0.967351874 1.03 1.148730351
8 1997 32 38 41 23 24 27 23 23 25 1.934703748 2.3 2.478839178 1.390568319 1.45 1.632406288 1.390568319 1.39 1.511487304
9 1998 40 45 49 24 27 31 23 24 28 2.418379686 2.72 2.962515115 1.451027811 1.63 1.874244256 1.390568319 1.45 1.69286578
10 1999 50 58 72 33 36 41 31 33 41 3.022974607 3.51 4.353083434 1.995163241 2.18 2.478839178 1.874244256 2 2.478839178
11 2000 64 72 85 46 50 55 44 48 55 3.869407497 4.35 5.139056832 2.781136638 3.02 3.325272068 2.660217654 2.9 3.325272068
12 2001 66 74 87 48 52 57 45 50 57 3.990326481 4.47 5.259975816 2.902055623 3.14 3.446191052 2.720677146 3.02 3.446191052
13 2002 66 77 95 48 52 57 45 50 57 3.990326481 4.66 5.743651753 2.902055623 3.14 3.446191052 2.720677146 3.02 3.446191052
14 2003 73 86 107 52 58 62 50 56 64 4.413542926 5.2 6.469165659 3.143893591 3.51 3.748488513 3.022974607 3.39 3.869407497
15 2004 79 91 115 59 61 65 58 60 68 4.776299879 5.5 6.952841596 3.567110036 3.69 3.929866989 3.506650544 3.63 4.111245466
16 2005 79 91 122 58 61 65 57 60 67 4.776299879 5.5 7.376058041 3.506650544 3.69 3.929866989 3.446191052 3.63 4.050785973
17 2006 87 105 138 61 65 70 61 65 74 5.259975816 6.35 8.343409915 3.688029021 3.93 4.23216445 3.688029021 3.93 4.474002418
18 2007 86 109 146 53 57 65 54 60 69 5.199516324 6.59 8.827085852 3.204353083 3.45 3.929866989 3.264812576 3.63 4.171704958
19 2008 119 160 209 62 75 87 64 74 94 7.194679565 9.67 12.63603386 3.748488513 4.53 5.259975816 3.869407497 4.47 5.683192261
20 2009 136 183 238 74 90 106 76 90 115 8.222490931 11.06 14.38935913 4.474002418 5.44 6.408706167 4.594921403 5.44 6.952841596
21 2010 179 226 287 95 120 136 90 117 149 10.82224909 13.66 17.35187424 5.743651753 7.26 8.222490931 5.441354293 7.07 9.008464329
22 2011 200 253 310 106 132 151 100 128 156 12.09189843 15.3 18.74244256 6.408706167 7.98 9.129383313 6.045949214 7.74 9.431680774
23 2012 265 343 429 135 173 197 130 163 200 16.02176542 20.74 25.93712213 8.162031439 10.46 11.91051995 7.859733978 9.85 12.09189843
24 2013 383 472 594 210 255 298 207 244 302 23.15598549 28.54 35.91293833 12.69649335 15.42 18.01692866 12.51511487 14.75 18.25876663
25 2014 402 505 620 216 263 309 217 261 314 24.30471584 30.53 37.48488513 13.0592503 15.9 18.68198307 13.11970979 15.78 18.98428053
26 2015 473 587 704 253 305 362 256 305 364 28.59733978 35.49 42.56348247 15.29625151 18.44 21.88633615 15.47762999 18.44 22.00725514
27 2016 542 658 773 309 364 425 312 366 435 32.76904474 39.78 46.73518742 18.68198307 22.01 25.69528416 18.86336155 22.13 26.29987908
28 2017 627 746 862 360 443 517 360 431 513 37.90810157 45.1 52.11608222 21.76541717 26.78 31.25755744 21.76541717 26.06 31.01571947
29 2018 609 722 833 373 437 501 373 435 508 36.81983071 43.65 50.36275695 22.55139057 26.42 30.29020556 22.55139057 26.3 30.71342201
30 2019 525 649 775 305 364 418 307 357 425 31.74123337 39.24 46.85610641 18.4401451 22.01 25.27206771 18.56106409 21.58 25.69528416
31 2020 655 777 908 398 471 536 402 466 546 39.60096735 46.98 54.89721886 24.06287787 28.48 32.40628779 24.30471584 28.17 33.01088271
32 2021 700 823 958 442 512 587 442 508 578 42.3216445 49.76 57.92019347 26.72309553 30.96 35.48972189 26.72309553 30.71 34.94558646
33 2022 733 868 993 467 540 617 469 538 619 44.31680774 52.48 60.0362757 28.23458283 32.65 37.30350665 28.35550181 32.53 37.42442563
34 2023 721 864 989 431 503 584 435 508 590 43.59129383 52.24 59.79443773 26.05804111 30.41 35.30834341 26.29987908 30.71 35.67110036
35 2024 731 872 1001 425 510 595 433 507 602 44.19588875 52.72 60.51995163 25.69528416 30.83 35.97339782 26.1789601 30.65 36.39661427
36 2025 876 1035 1156 545 641 737 551 635 744 52.96251511 62.58 69.89117291 32.95042322 38.75 44.55864571 33.31318017 38.39 44.98186215
37 2026 966 1109 1216 634 728 827 626 724 831 58.40386941 67.05 73.51874244 38.33131802 44.01 50 37.84764208 43.77 50.24183797
38 2027 1062 1196 1298 713 827 921 704 802 904 64.20798065 72.31 78.4764208 43.1076179 50 55.68319226 42.56348247 48.49 54.65538089
39 2028 1177 1285 1381 847 953 1030 834 929 1023 71.16082225 77.69 83.49455865 51.20918984 57.62 62.2732769 50.42321644 56.17 61.85006046
40 2029 1175 1296 1386 845 960 1038 822 925 1007 71.03990326 78.36 83.79685611 51.08827086 58.04 62.75695284 49.69770254 55.93 60.88270859
41 2030 1316 1396 1447 1029 1125 1194 1010 1101 1176 79.56469166 84.4 87.48488513 62.21281741 68.02 72.18863362 61.06408706 66.57 71.10036276
42 2031 1309 1383 1442 1021 1118 1199 1007 1098 1179 79.14147521 83.62 87.18258767 61.72914148 67.59 72.49093108 60.88270859 66.38 71.28174123
43 2032 1409 1463 1506 1191 1267 1333 1185 1259 1327 85.18742443 88.45 91.05199516 72.00725514 76.6 80.59250302 71.64449819 76.12 80.22974607
44 2033 1454 1496 1523 1279 1341 1399 1278 1333 1386 87.90810157 90.45 92.07980653 77.32769045 81.08 84.5828295 77.26723096 80.59 83.79685611
45 2034 1469 1510 1534 1330 1379 1421 1324 1376 1417 88.81499395 91.29 92.74486094 80.41112455 83.37 85.91293833 80.04836759 83.19 85.67110036
46 2035 1496 1532 1554 1377 1411 1444 1374 1407 1439 90.44740024 92.62 93.95405079 83.25272068 85.31 87.30350665 83.0713422 85.07 87.00120919
47 2036 1494 1527 1551 1385 1424 1455 1380 1419 1450 90.32648126 92.32 93.77267231 83.73639661 86.09 87.96856106 83.43409915 85.79 87.6662636
48 2037 1525 1549 1572 1436 1462 1491 1432 1459 1486 92.20072551 93.65 95.04232164 86.81983071 88.39 90.14510278 86.57799274 88.21 89.84280532
49 2038 1516 1537 1559 1441 1465 1488 1434 1458 1476 91.65659008 92.93 94.25634825 87.12212817 88.57 89.9637243 86.69891173 88.15 89.2382104
50 2039 1515 1540 1568 1438 1461 1479 1432 1457 1471 91.59613059 93.11 94.80048368 86.9407497 88.33 89.41958888 86.57799274 88.09 88.93591294
51 2040 1561 1576 1588 1513 1532 1541 1510 1529 1539 94.37726723 95.28 96.00967352 91.47521161 92.62 93.16807739 91.29383313 92.44 93.0471584
52 2041 1575 1588 1602 1540 1554 1564 1535 1552 1561 95.22370012 96.01 96.85610641 93.1076179 93.95 94.55864571 92.80532044 93.83 94.37726723
53 2042 1593 1601 1611 1558 1571 1583 1553 1567 1578 96.31197098 96.8 97.40024184 94.19588875 94.98 95.70737606 93.89359129 94.74 95.4050786
54 2043 1606 1612 1621 1576 1589 1599 1572 1586 1594 97.09794438 97.46 98.00483676 95.28415961 96.07 96.67472793 95.04232164 95.89 96.37243047
55 2044 1600 1607 1618 1578 1590 1595 1572 1585 1590 96.73518742 97.16 97.82345828 95.4050786 96.13 96.43288996 95.04232164 95.83 96.1305925
56 2045 1608 1615 1621 1589 1596 1603 1582 1596 1600 97.21886336 97.64 98.00483676 96.07013301 96.49 96.9165659 95.64691657 96.49 96.73518742
57 2046 1618 1624 1629 1599 1607 1612 1597 1608 1612 97.82345828 98.19 98.4885127 96.67472793 97.16 97.46070133 96.55380895 97.22 97.46070133
58 2047 1619 1626 1631 1600 1609 1614 1598 1611 1614 97.88391778 98.31 98.60943168 96.73518742 97.28 97.58162031 96.61426844 97.4 97.58162031
59 2048 1621 1626 1631 1602 1609 1615 1599 1608 1613 98.00483676 98.31 98.60943168 96.85610641 97.28 97.64207981 96.67472793 97.22 97.52116082
60 2049 1627 1635 1644 1611 1616 1620 1609 1618 1620 98.36759371 98.85 99.39540508 97.40024184 97.7 97.94437727 97.27932285 97.82 97.94437727
61 2050 1632 1640 1645 1616 1621 1625 1615 1624 1625 98.66989117 99.15 99.45586457 97.7025393 98 98.24667473 97.64207981 98.19 98.24667473
62 2051 1635 1640 1644 1614 1624 1628 1612 1619 1623 98.85126965 99.15 99.39540508 97.58162031 98.19 98.4280532 97.46070133 97.88 98.12575574
63 2052 1645 1650 1652 1625 1633 1638 1624 1632 1635 99.45586457 99.76 99.87908102 98.24667473 98.73 99.03264813 98.18621524 98.67 98.85126965
64 2053 1646 1651 1652 1631 1635 1641 1630 1639 1641 99.51632406 99.82 99.87908102 98.60943168 98.85 99.2140266 98.54897219 99.09 99.2140266
65 2054 1646 1650 1652 1632 1635 1641 1632 1638 1641 99.51632406 99.76 99.87908102 98.66989117 98.85 99.2140266 98.66989117 99.03 99.2140266
66 2055 1648 1651 1653 1636 1639 1642 1636 1641 1642 99.63724305 99.82 99.93954051 98.91172914 99.09 99.27448609 98.91172914 99.21 99.27448609
67 2056 1649 1653 1654 1636 1640 1646 1636 1642 1644 99.69770254 99.94 100 98.91172914 99.15 99.51632406 98.91172914 99.27 99.39540508
68 2057 1649 1653 1654 1641 1644 1648 1640 1646 1647 99.69770254 99.94 100 99.2140266 99.4 99.63724305 99.15356711 99.52 99.57678356
69 2058 1652 1654 1654 1651 1651 1652 1650 1651 1651 99.87908102 100 100 99.81862152 99.82 99.87908102 99.75816203 99.82 99.81862152
70 2059 1652 1654 1654 1651 1651 1652 1651 1651 1651 99.87908102 100 100 99.81862152 99.82 99.87908102 99.81862152 99.82 99.81862152
71 2060 1653 1654 1654 1652 1652 1652 1652 1652 1652 99.93954051 100 100 99.87908102 99.88 99.87908102 99.87908102 99.88 99.87908102
72 2061 1654 1654 1654 1652 1652 1652 1652 1652 1652 100 100 100 99.87908102 99.88 99.87908102 99.87908102 99.88 99.87908102
73 2062 1652 1654 1654 1651 1651 1652 1651 1651 1651 99.87908102 100 100 99.81862152 99.82 99.87908102 99.81862152 99.82 99.81862152
74 2063 1653 1654 1654 1652 1652 1652 1652 1652 1652 99.93954051 100 100 99.87908102 99.88 99.87908102 99.87908102 99.88 99.87908102
75 2064 1653 1654 1654 1652 1652 1652 1652 1652 1652 99.93954051 100 100 99.87908102 99.88 99.87908102 99.87908102 99.88 99.87908102
76 2065 1653 1654 1654 1652 1652 1652 1652 1652 1652 99.93954051 100 100 99.87908102 99.88 99.87908102 99.87908102 99.88 99.87908102
77 2066 1654 1654 1654 1652 1652 1652 1652 1652 1652 100 100 100 99.87908102 99.88 99.87908102 99.87908102 99.88 99.87908102
78 2067 1654 1654 1654 1653 1653 1653 1653 1653 1653 100 100 100 99.93954051 99.94 99.93954051 99.93954051 99.94 99.93954051
79 2068 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
80 2069 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
81 2070 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
82 2071 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
83 2072 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
84 2073 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
85 2074 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
86 2075 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
87 2076 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
88 2077 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
89 2078 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
90 2079 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
91 2080 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
92 2081 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
93 2082 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
94 2083 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
95 2084 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
96 2085 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
97 2086 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
98 2087 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
99 2088 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
100 2089 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 1654 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Coral Reef Bleaching Projections Under Climate Change (1990–2095) — Analysis

By 2058, 100% of coral reef locations face annual severe bleaching under the SST-only model

Cloudiness corrections delay this tipping point by only ~10 years (to 2068), not prevent it

Projected Coral Bleaching Under Climate Change

  • Coral reefs affected by severe thermal stress rose from under 1% (1990) to over 50% (2022) across all three bias-correction models
  • The steepest acceleration occurred 2008-2013, when affected reefs jumped from ~10% to ~29% under the SST model
  • Accounting for cloudiness feedback (Cfa and rsds corrections) reduces projected bleaching by 15-20 percentage points in the 2020s, but the gap narrows to zero by the 2060s
  • All three models converge to 100% between 2058 and 2068, meaning the cloudiness effect only delays — not prevents — universal bleaching
  • The 2010s saw the largest single-decade increase: +36 percentage points in the SST model

Visualizations

Decade-by-Decade Acceleration of Bleaching
SST Model Confidence Interval
Reef Locations Exceeding Bleaching Threshold
Percentage of Coral Reefs Facing Severe Bleaching

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